Lectures on Macroeconomics, No. 13

Having reached the unlucky number of 13, it is fitting to talk about multipliers and model estimates. For much of this lecture, we are going to leave the world of economics behind. We are going to start out in the world of what Greg Mankiw calls the macroeconomic engineer. Below is a table that gives the output of a hypothetical "model run [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 22:42:45

Blog posts (135) | Videos (150)
 

Whither the newspaper, Part 2

In early December, I wrote a post about the financial troubles facing the newspaper industry as it faces a recession and a transition to a more digital-centric world. In the post, I mentioned reports that the New York Times was facing crippling debt at a time when they couldn’t pay it off, and conditions were unfavorable for them to borrow [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 15:42:22

Government Intervention in Foreclosure

This is Part Four of a series of articles on foreclosures. This article does not constitute legal advice. Foreclosure laws vary from state to state. Homeowners in financial distress should always hire legal counsel. Call your local state bar association for a referral.  Reduced or free legal aid may be available in some states [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 07:00:13

When newspapers are gone, what will you miss?

Years and years after some pundits began predicting the end of newspapers, the newspapers themselves are finally realizing that it's over. Huge debt, high costs, declining subscription rates, plummeting ad base ... away. The full page ads for local department stores? The free standing inserts on Sunday [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 13:51:04

Multi-Apostolic Defense of Paul Washer

I had written: "This objector's works-salvation is showing itself: note how this objector indicates that God makes a first move and then it is man that fails or succeeds. That is a great definition of works-salvation. It is to be contrasted with a salvation in which God is both the author (first mover) and finisher (last mover) of our faith." ( [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 04:00:00

The Bubble Was Bound To Break

WCSH 6 reports from Maine. “2008 was a difficult year for real estate on many fronts ... s now been resolved. But if the problem is your mortgage went up to more than you can afford, (Chapter ... A Manchester woman who owns a courier business got into debt after her gas expenses spiked to $1,500 [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 13:37:16

JOURNAL: New Lows

In a quick follow up to the "Middle Class Consumers" journal entry. A change is afoot and it will be a good thing: Bloomberg ... analysis, although it is growing at the edges of the commercial analytical world. What does ... of imagination" in regards to China, despite tens of billions being spent on gov't analysis/intelligence [more...]

Date: 2009-01-02 21:24:58

Rebates' Fiscal (Non)Stimulus

While I do not have time at the moment to do a proper summary of this paper by John Taylor at Stanford, it is a good read and not that long ... their means and it needs to remain there. Consumer debt is actually going down right now, minimally at least, and that is a good thing. The problem is not a lack of consumer spending [more...]

Date: 2009-01-10 18:33:31

Financial Forecast for 2009, Considering Resource Limitations

In this post, I consider some major issues contributing to our current financial problems, before making a financial forecast for 2009. These are 1 ... from the bottom: Layer 1. Household Debt (Mortgages, auto loans, credit card debt, student loans ... debt-based financial system operating. 3. Where we are now, and the role reduced resources [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 15:10:32

Is There a Future for the Bank?

In the good old days of plain vanilla finance, intermediaries were distinguished, and clearly distinguishable , between bank and non-bank intermediaries. The former, it was explained, were "special" in that they collected funds (mostly) in the form of short-term, sight money deposits, and lent them out (mostly) in the form of long-term, personal, non-marketable loans. [more...]

Date: 2009-09-29 18:53:18

Is There a Future for the Bank?

In the good old days of plain vanilla finance, intermediaries were distinguished, and clearly distinguishable , between bank and non-bank intermediaries. The former, it was explained, were "special" in that they collected funds (mostly) in the form of short-term, sight money deposits, and lent them out (mostly) in the form of long-term, personal, non-marketable loans. [more...]

Date: 2009-09-29 18:53:18

Kelly McParland: The frightening fortunes of the New York Times

There's an old witticism that goes something like: "A recession is when your neighbour loses his job. A Depression is when you lose yours ... on some $400million in debt. With more than $1billion in debt already on the books, only $46million in cash reserves as of October, and no clear way to tap into the capital markets (the company’s debt was [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 15:30:00

Hanging In There Ain’t Much Comfort When You’re Near the Top of The Range

Published this intro to the RevolutioNewsletter for subscribers on Monday…you can sign up to get these newsletter intro’s which I sometimes publish ... stocks, the best secular growers, the companies with no debt and tons of cash when (if) the market gets ... from the government paying off all the worthless contracts the company stupidly bought from AIG [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 12:20:19

by Dr. Ellen Hodgson Brown featured writerDandelion SaladEllen’s post Jan 3, 2009webofdebt.com Cartoon in the New Yorker: A gun-toting man with large dark glasses, large hat pulled down, stands in front of a bank teller, who is reading a demand note. It says, “Give me all the money in my account [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 17:24:55

Rough going ahead

“Over the next 12 months, markets could experience sharp volatility swings ... analysis and see where his take on things can be of benefit to this industry’s bottom line. Information ... be put to good use by truckers large and small to help navigate the tricky economic waters [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 19:19:52

2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP

I meant to take yet another Friday away from my writing, but as I am researching for next week’s annual prediction issue, there is so much material that begs to be covered that I thought I would put out a short letter with 3 or 4 points as a preface to my prognostications of next week [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 12:42:15

Why Economists Missed the Crises

Why did Economists, as a group, miss the warning signs of housing, credit and market crisis? I don’t mean individuals — several professional Economists got it right; Academics like Nouriel Roubini of NYU and Robert Shiller of Yale, as well as a few Wall Streeters, such as David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch and Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 12:00:12

TALKING ABOUT "HARD CURRENCIES" ON THE INSIDE VIEW PODCAST

The Merk Hard Currency Fund (MERKX) stands out for one simple reason: It's turned a profit over the past 3 years ... Currency has a strategic preference for cash—non-U.S. cash and related investments, to be precise. That includes gold, foreign currencies and short-term debt instruments denominated in something other [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 18:46:48

Drugs are expensive - Call the WAMBULANCE.

This post is a rebuttal to a post located HERE. I think the post is well written, and I think the blog author is probably a nice person ( ... going into debt or staying sick. I’m sure this is not new news: Prescription drug costs ... from the poor health of our citizens? As a community, shouldn’t we care and pay for our grandparents – [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 05:27:14

Submerging Markets - Catching Down to the US

Let's take some time out from lamenting the dour economic news at home, the sense of betrayal we all feel by the collective gods of Wall Street, captains of industry and frauds of our country (Madoff, this means you), and take some solace in the fact that we're not the only ones who %&*(#@!^'d up royally [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 18:08:12

tips to get out of it

There are many reasons for people to face court actions, one of the many are financial cases, being submitted to court are because of bad credit ... consolidation with connection to other debt and financial managing companies. ... rebuild their credit card! by providing Debt Counseling and debt referral by Suze Orman Tips [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 13:06:08

by Zahir Ebrahim featured writerDandelion SaladZahir’s blog postProject Humanbeingsfirst Jan ... . You have explained credit very well in your excellent book Web of Debt (and I am half-way through it), and so has Paul Grignon in his outstanding video Money as Debt. Please understand that “Thou Shall Not Kill” [more...]

Date: 2009-01-13 20:44:07

"Dynamic Scoring"

I was thinking about thinking about this: Dynamic Scoring, by Andy Harless: Suppose that, at the beginning of the fiscal year, Congress appropriates $100 billion extra for infrastructure projects. At the end of the fiscal year, how much higher will the deficit turn out to be, compared to what it otherwise would have been? [more...]

Date: 2009-01-13 08:33:00

Punishing the Wizard: On Apple and Steve Jobs

Punishing the Wizard: On Apple and Steve Jobs John Paczkowski of All Things Digital nails it in 'Apple Investors Are Wusses ... of differentiated products, diversified revenue sources, depth of product pipeline, quality/depth of management team, operating margins, profits, cashflow, cash reserves and absence of debt? So go ahead, [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 20:11:14

2008 in Review and Some Guesses About 2009

Good Afternoon: I will briefly dispense with the market action during the last gasps of 2008 before turning to a review of 2008. I will conclude with what can only be called wild guesses for 2009. The last trading day of 2008 enabled our capital markets to close with the type of upside flourish that was sorely lacking during most of the year [more...]

Date: 2009-01-02 21:49:06

Do You Feel Stimulated?

Speaker Nancy Pelosi has released a draft of the proposed stimulus package that is now standing at around $825 billion.  It didn’t take too long to grow $50 over what Obama was asking for (read draft here).  Needless to say, that in order to get bi-partisanship off on the right foot, [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 22:54:11

More (less) on the costs of stimulus

This is what I’m talking about in my last post: We can continue to debate the size and nature of the stimulus, of course, ... revenue. So bang for the buck — increase in GDP per dollar of added debt — is 3, not 1.5. Since the main concern about stimulus is that it will add to government debt, it’s this bang for the buck [more...]

Date: 2009-01-16 03:30:42

21 Key Real Estate Analysis Measures & Formulas

By James Kobzeff A must-have article for anyone involved with real estate investing; ... ) - Cash flow before taxes is net operating income, less debt service and capital expenditures, plus ... because they require a financial calculator or investment real estate software to compute [more...]

Date: 2008-12-18 10:03:26

Biofuel Carbon Footprint Not As Big As Feared

Publications ranging from the journal Science to Time magazine have blasted biofuels for significantly contributing to greenhouse gas emissions, ... take from 100 to 1,000 years before biofuels could overcome this 'carbon debt' and start providing ... to overcome the carbon debt to three years for grassland conversion and 14 years for temperate zone [more...]

Date: 2009-01-16 03:22:36

New Year's Day Economic Potpourri

Heading into the new year, the news is finally slowing down. Here are a few headline news reports of interest from the past couple days.Massive Layoffs Coming For MicrosoftMicrosoft getting ready to lay off 17% of staffThe rumor that Microsoft was set to lay off people on January 15th, 2009 is no longer a rumor but a fact [more...]

Date: 2009-01-02 00:46:00

The current economy situation

What is going on with the economy and the bail outs? Ok, I would explain it so that a high school kid could understand ... . As long as the $90 debt is producing $90 value in due time, the system is balanced, and without inflation.   Now here is the problem. Due to the housing bubble, our banks now have only $5 left [more...]

Date: 2009-01-16 03:19:22

Political Wisdom: Obama’s Plan is Just Too Small

Here’s a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web: by Gerald F. Seib and Sara Murray Plenty of skeptics are popping up to suggest the economic stimulus plan President-elect Barack Obama will present, carrying a price tag of $800 billion or so, is too much government spending, [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 15:58:41

A Worst-Case Commodity Scenario

The task of today's Daily Reckoning is to ponder what could cause the All Ords and the ASX/200 to make a new low in the first quarter of 2009. A warning, today's issue is longer than normal. But the stakes are higher than normal too. So we hope you'll bear with us. By the way, by new low, we mean could the indices take out the March 2003 lows? [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 02:42:34

Start Improving Your Credit Score Today

If you want to borrow money from a lender, you’ll quickly learn how important your credit score is ... , payment history, and the types of credit you currently have. So let’s take a look at the various factors in more depth, and what percentage of your credit score they will generally represent. Payment [more...]

Date: 2009-01-16 00:46:34

Fairholme’s Bruce Berkowitz in Advisor Perspectives

Bruce Berkowitz of the Fairholme Fund (FAIRX) is featured in a great interview with Advisor Perspectives ... . How can you meet Ben Graham’s requirement of thorough analysis or determine the margin of safety? We can’t do that analysis in this case, because we are dealing with more of a Berkshire Hathaway issue [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 18:32:02

Project Humanbeingsfirst Index

Honorific of the day “you are a completely stupid fool, a disgrace to humanity” -- Paul Craig Roberts, ... on Terror' News Analysis in Context Financial Terrorism November–December 2008 Financial News Analysis in ContextLatest Reports Response to Ellen Brown's 'How to Resolve the Credit Crisis' January [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 00:03:00

Is Bank of America the Next “Citi”?

Is Bank of America the Next “Citi”? This morning Bank of America hit a new 52 week low, and traded at its lowest level since 1991 ... that help illustrate why humans make predictably irrational decisions. Ariely is the author ... , and the weaknesses in the credit rating agencies’ collateralized debt obligation (CDO) assumptions [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 15:42:49

The New York Times: Defunct by May? Um, Maybe not.

Michael Hirschorn got news industry observers sputtering last week by opining that, based on his analysis of the New York Times Company's balance sheet, the Great Gray Lady might run ... will have to be taken over the next five months or the paper will default on some $400million in debt [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 03:07:57

Big Information Technology Firms Still Struggling Financially

It was the Search Engine Company Yahoo that got headlines for the most part of 2008 ... sure their long term viability. Some of the usual Financial Services includes debt management ... Jerry Yang to give way for a new CEO of Yahoo. Despite the management move Yahoo stocks are still [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 09:14:26

Money Merge Account Analysis Pt 18

One thing I continue to run into are the post of people who claim to use the Money Merge Account, ... my credit card first! Why? When I pay my car off first, that’s another $387 that goes to other debt every month, vs. only about $60 from my credit card being paid off. My mortgage with 26 years left [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 13:02:52

Fazzari on Keynesian Economics

Steve Fazzari, of Washington University in St. Louis, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about Keynesian economics ... About this week's guest: Steve Fazzari's Home page "Household Debt in the Consumer Age: Source of Growth ... of Economics. Government Debt and Deficits, by John Seater. Concise Encyclopedia of Economics. John [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 11:29:25

Today's Financial Markets News - Jan-14-09

By The Greek - Economy & Markets:Visit the front pages of Wall Street Greek and Market Moving News to see our current coverage of economic reports and financial markets.We've compiled, sorted and analyzed the day's market-moving news for you. Today's financial news highlights: dire December retail sales; diving import & export prices; [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 18:00:00

"Adding a Trillion Dollars in Debt is Quite Manageable"

This is from an interview of Kenneth Rogoff: ...The Long-Term Consequences of Debt Region: Well, let's talk about the U.S. debt and its long-term consequences, in the context of the current economic crisis. The Stabilization Act authorizes $700 billion, some of which will contribute to the growth of national debt [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 06:21:49

London Gold Market Report - 15 Jan 2009

London Gold Market Report - 15 Jan 2009 January 15th, 2009 January 15, 2009 Adrian Ash BullionVault Gold Left Unmoved by Eurozone Rate Cut; ... falling almost 0.8% to just 1.29% as the price of fixed-income government debt was bid higher. “ ... the technical analysis team today at Mitsui in London – heart of the world’s Wholesale Gold Market. Read [more...]

Date: 2009-01-15 16:24:48

Real Estate Analysis Measures & Formulas

Successful real estate investing requires a savvy understanding of several key financial measures and formulas ... calculator or investment real estate software to compute. 1. Gross Scheduled Income (GSI ... not include debt service, income taxes, or depreciation. Example: $18,525 5. Net Operating Income [more...]

Date: 2008-12-16 20:38:43

Leverage and the world in 2009

A recent article focused on satellite radio and the merger of XM and Sirius ... . Approximately $3B in debt is outstanding for the company; since they are not cash flow positive to any ... above, a rough guess would be that they would have to pay maybe 20% interest rates to roll [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 03:29:19

Optimal Fiscal Policy with a Liquidity Trap and Gridlock

Robert WaldmannI'm still thinking about Krugman's excellent little model which gives the very clear result that optimal macro policy implies that ... for Government consumption (G) sooner or later so they don't count the federal debt as part of their net [more...]

Date: 2009-01-13 10:19:00

Reversing Bush economic blunders not enough

Another report card on Bush administration economic policies points up eight years of spectacular and remarkably consistent ... ’s tenure, the most tepid growth over any eight-year span since data collection began seven decades [more...]

Date: 2009-01-14 07:44:53

Speculation: New York Times May File for Bankruptcy by... May?!?

—Ace It's more than just idle speculation. The Times is sitting on a lot of debt that comes due in that time-frame, ... million in debt. With more than $1 billion in debt already on the books, only $46 million in cash reserves as of October, and no clear way to tap into the capital markets (the company’s debt [more...]

Date: 2009-01-09 19:04:16

TOP CONSUMER PRODUCT REVIEWS

Top consumer product reviews features reviews on various consumer products online, including computer monitoring software,affiliate marketing, debt relief, web design, learn french,and foreign language education. Offering consumers the detailed analysis of top-selling online products in each industry. [more...]

Date: 2009-09-29 01:14:25

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